2009 MLB projections

This is a projection of the 2009 MLB season based upon the following assumptions:

1. 2,000 iterations of a whole season based upon the actual 2009 schedule.

2. Visting team runs scored and Home team runs scored are simulated for each and every one of the 2,430 games (this would be one iteration).
3. Negative Binomial distribution of both home runs scored and visitor runs scored for every game.

4. If the score ends up tied (visiting team runs = home team runs) then I give the win to the home team.

5. The whole deal comes up with the parameters for the NegBin distribution, this time I'm using 6 different models, based upong 6 different projection methods: Cairo, Chone, Hbt, Marcel, Pecota and Zips.

6. Follow this site to the simulations on Diamond Mind Baseball under each system: http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2009/04/2009-diamond-mind-projection-blowout.html. Based upon the Runs Scored and Allowed per team for each system there, I built the parameters of the Negative Binomial distribution of each team under each game as a combination of the Team Runs Scored per game, and the Opposite Team Runs Allowed per game.

American League

East Division

Clearly a 3-team division, as all systems project a tight race among the Rays, the Red Sox and the Yankees. Most of them give the highest probability to the Yankees though, as only Chone gives more probability to the Red Sox.

Central Division

More variety here, both unanimously the Indians seem to have the highest odds of winning it. The Tigers come second with the Twins not very far away.

West Division

Again, unanimously the Angels have the highest odds, but the A's don't seem so far behind, especially under the Hbt and Marcel systems. The M's come second only under the Chone system.

National League

East Division

Seems like another 3-team race, with the Braves, Mets and Phillies ending up with similar chances of winning it, although we see the biggest difference among systems here. Zips, Pecota and Hbt project higher probability for the Mets, while Marcel and Cairo for the Braves and Chone gives the highest odds to the Phillies.

Central Division

Another unanimous winner, the Cubs have the highest odds under all systems. Pecota even gives them a 55% of winning it (would you bet on it?). The Cardinals are the only team to pose a threat to beat the Cubs.

West Division

The Dodgers unanimously win this one, especially under Marcel, the D-Backs seem to be the only threat to them. Giants, Rockies and Padres with very similar chances of winning it under all systems.